Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? – by Graham Allison

vickygunawan
Mar 15
5 min read

The 21st century is witnessing one of the most consequential power shifts in history: the rise of China and its challenge to U.S. global dominance. In Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides' Trap?, Graham Allison examines the historical patterns of power transitions and warns that the U.S.-China rivalry could follow the same path that led previous rising and ruling powers into war.

This book explores whether war between the two superpowers is inevitable—or if diplomacy, strategy, and cooperation can prevent a catastrophic conflict. Below is a detailed breakdown of Thucydides’ Trap, historical case studies, and the lessons we can learn from history to navigate this critical moment in global politics.

What is Thucydides’ Trap?

At its core, Thucydides' Trap describes the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace an established power. The term originates from the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who chronicled the Peloponnesian War between Athens (rising power) and Sparta (ruling power).

His famous observation:

“It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”

This pattern has repeated throughout history, where a dominant nation feels threatened by a newcomer’s rise, leading to escalating tensions, competition, and often, war.

The 16 Historical Cases of Power Transitions

Allison and his team at the Harvard Belfer Center studied 16 cases in the last 500 years where a rising power challenged an established power.

Key Findings:

12 of the 16 cases ended in war (e.g., World War I, Napoleonic Wars).
4 cases avoided war (e.g., U.S. surpassing Britain peacefully).

These examples help us understand why wars break out and how they can be avoided.

Historical Case Studies: Lessons from the Past

To understand the risk of U.S.-China conflict, we must look at past rivalries where a rising power challenged an established power.

(A) Cases That Led to War (12 out of 16)

1. Britain vs. Germany (World War I)

Germany’s rapid industrial and military growth alarmed Britain.
Britain saw Germany’s naval expansion as a direct challenge to its supremacy.
Nationalism, alliances, and miscalculations led to a catastrophic war.

Lesson: Even when neither side wants war, escalation and alliances can make it unavoidable.

2. Japan vs. U.S. (World War II)

Japan wanted dominance in the Pacific, but the U.S. imposed economic sanctions.
Japan saw the U.S. as an obstacle to its expansion and launched Pearl Harbor attack (1941).
The U.S. retaliated, leading to total war in the Pacific.

Lesson: Economic pressure can push nations into war if they feel cornered.

3. France vs. Habsburg Spain (16th-17th Century)

The Habsburg Empire dominated Europe, but France sought to rise as a counterforce.
The power struggle led to decades of war, including the Thirty Years' War.

Lesson: Long-term rivalries between two dominant powers often lead to prolonged conflicts.

(B) Cases Where War Was Avoided (4 out of 16)

1. The U.S. vs. the Soviet Union (Cold War)

After World War II, the U.S. and USSR were on a collision course as superpowers.
Instead of war, they managed tensions through deterrence (Mutually Assured Destruction - MAD).
The Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) was a close call, but both sides backed down.

Lesson: Clear red lines and diplomacy can prevent war even between rival superpowers.

2. The U.K. vs. the U.S. (Early 20th Century)

In the late 1800s, the U.S. surpassed Britain economically.
Instead of fighting, Britain gradually accepted U.S. dominance and focused on cooperation.
The two countries became allies in World War I and II.

Lesson: A ruling power can avoid war by strategically accommodating a rising power.

Why This Matters Today: U.S. vs. China

Graham Allison argues that China’s rise is the greatest challenge to U.S. supremacy since World War II.The key questions:

Will the U.S. accept China’s rise, or will it try to suppress it?
Will China challenge U.S. dominance through aggression or diplomacy?

Potential Flashpoints for U.S.-China War

Allison highlights four major areas where conflict could erupt:

1. Taiwan

China considers Taiwan part of its territory and has vowed to reunify it.
The U.S. supports Taiwan militarily, creating a direct conflict risk.
A Chinese invasion could force the U.S. to intervene.

▶ Risk: A Taiwan crisis could trigger a U.S.-China war.

2. South China Sea

China claims nearly the entire South China Sea, ignoring international rulings.
The U.S. and allies conduct freedom of navigation exercises to counter China’s claims.
Military incidents between U.S. and Chinese ships or planes could escalate.

▶ Risk: A small incident could spiral into full-scale war.

3. Trade and Technology Wars

The U.S. has banned China from accessing advanced technology (e.g., semiconductors, AI).
China sees these restrictions as economic warfare.
An escalating trade war could deepen political hostility.

▶ Risk: Economic conflict can fuel nationalism and military confrontation.

4. Accidental Military Clashes

During the Cold War, the U.S. and USSR avoided direct war through careful diplomacy.
U.S. and Chinese forces often operate dangerously close to each other in the Pacific.
A miscalculation or accident (e.g., a collision between warships) could escalate tensions rapidly.

▶ Risk: A small military incident could trigger larger conflict.

How Can War Be Avoided?

While history suggests war is likely, Allison outlines key strategies for avoiding it:

1. Clear Red Lines

The U.S. and China must set clear boundaries to prevent misunderstandings.
Example: The Cuban Missile Crisis showed how red lines prevent escalation.

2. Economic Interdependence

The more the U.S. and China depend on each other economically, the lower the incentive for war.
Example: The U.S. and China both benefit from global trade, which could deter military aggression.

3. Strategic Patience

Leaders must resist the urge to respond aggressively to provocations.
Example: The Cold War didn’t lead to direct war because both sides exercised restraint.

4. Military Communication Channels

There should be direct military hotlines to prevent escalation during crises.
Example: The U.S.-Soviet hotline during the Cold War helped defuse tensions.

Key Takeaways:

Thucydides' Trap is a historical pattern, but NOT an absolute rule.War is likely, but NOT inevitable—wise leadership can prevent it.
Miscalculation is the biggest danger.Many wars happen not because leaders want them, but because they misread each other's intentions.
The U.S. and China must find a way to coexist.Whether through diplomacy, economic cooperation, or strategic agreements, both nations must avoid reckless competition.
History shows that war is costly for both powers.Every past case of great power war resulted in massive destruction for both sides—a war between the U.S. and China would be catastrophic.

The future of global stability depends on whether the U.S. and China repeat the mistakes of history or learn from them. The 21st century will be defined by their choices.